People aren’t saying the chance is literally zero. They are saying it is low enough that they can’t consider it reliable comp for income purposes in their own personal situations. I can’t say my experience has been any different so I don’t blame them. People commenting aren’t math illiterate. I’m kinda amazed you are taking things so literally when it’s so obvious to anybody reading how to interpret the discussion.
They sure are insistent on it being literally zero for people who don't think it's literally zero.
If you like, I'm happy to update my claim to, "startup equity often has non-trivial value, say, >$1000 per year."
Add a few zeros and I think we’d be in the right ballpark. You have to make up for the haircut before you start counting positive net value.