The main difference is that people often think they share a fate as a startup. They all have the same lottery tickets (in varying amounts) that pay out under the same conditions. After all, that's how managers often motivate the early employees.

But since there are different classes of lottery tickets, the payouts can change arbitrarily at the last minute depending on the specifics of the deals.

So even after accounting for the fact that most lottery tickets don't pay out, you need to account for the fact that some within the same startup might pay out while yours don't. And there's no perfect way of knowing ahead of time.