#2: The war economy pumps a huge amount of money back into the Russian market, but regardless of the outcome, the state will be left with a major deficit—and that will affect poor Russians the most. Their roads will fall into disrepair, substance abuse treatment will deteriorate further, the quality of their schools will decline, and veterans (including freed ex-convicts) will be highly visible when they return from the front lines.

Russia may now assume the role of the little brother of the East, having poured vast resources into the invasion while China and India have bided their time, watching the US-EU relationship deteriorate. Without getting too ahead of myself, it almost feels like watching the stars align perfectly for China, which could emerge as the “good guy” on top — much like the USA after the 1950s. They didn’t have to go to war, yet they’ve benefitted from a Russian military failure, Trump-related chaos, a possibly weakened NATO, increased exports to the EU and other markets, and more. Culturally, Hollywood may even shift to Beijing, and our grandkids might find it strange that Europeans once idolized the USA. It remains to be seen how China will manage to downplay its repression.

I visited Russia 15 years ago and have long wanted to return — assuming those in power were replaced with a more friendly alternative — but I’m no longer sure I want to. I imagine it will feel similar to the last years of the Soviet Union with widespread alcoholism and child prostitution. Historical significance only goes so far when signs of social despair are visible on every street corner.