The "intentionally tank the economy to roll over national debt at lower rates" theory completely misses how government bonds actually work. A bond is essentially a promise: you lend the government money for a specific period, and they pay you back with interest at the end. When that bond matures, it's simply paid off. There's no refinancing happening.

What people call "rolling over" debt just means the government is issuing brand new bonds to raise money to pay off the ones that are maturing. These are completely separate transactions, often with entirely different investors. The government continuously sells new bonds and pays off maturing ones as part of normal operations.

Creating a recession to somehow game this system would be spectacularly counterproductive. Tax revenue would collapse while unemployment benefits and other social spending would skyrocket, creating even larger deficits. Any minor interest savings would be dwarfed by the economic damage. Not to mention the Fed sets rates based on economic conditions, not to help government borrowing. This isn't some clever financial strategy—It's just bad economics built on a fundamental misunderstanding of how sovereign debt markets function.

The problem with this plan is that the tariffs are likely to cause inflation. (Because now prices have to include the tariffs.) In a period of inflation, people are unwilling to buy bonds of any kind, including Treasury bonds, unless they have a high interest rate. This will increase the cost of rolling over the debt, and will create even worse problems for our government.