The best possible rationalization with extremely favorable glasses is that Trump is forcing a return to US manufacturing. The best version of this would incorporate things like a scheduled increase over time to give companies time to migrate, amounts based off of things like differences in living conditions, along with minor things like congressional approval so it's actually legal at all.
However the vastly more likely reason is he's a complete fucking moron that treats all interactions as binary "winning" or "losing". A mindset that helped him bankrupt numberous companies, and now likely a country. So trade deficits are "losing" and he's retaliating with tariffs. This logic befitting a toddler completely fits everything he's demonstrated over the years.
Let's say you want to bring back semiconductor manufacturing. It seems counterproductive to start with immediate blanket tariffs that include the machines necessary to fabricate semiconductors, where no domestic alternatives exist. Yet that's exactly what's happening. Previous policies would have used long lists of exemptions, carefully crafted tariff schedules, and other policies to try and minimize collateral damage. These tariffs do not.
Like many things carried about by this administration, the charitable interpretation of the intent is harmed by the manner of implementation. Countless policies have been implemented in a rushed, haphazard, confusing, nonsensical, surprising, and inconsistent manner which makes it tough to believe they are actually well-thought-out strategic moves.
Agreed. I'm someone who likes (more or less) his policy ideas/goals but HATES (can't emphasize that enough) how badly they have been implemented!
Ref. manufacturing, any serious-scale company is not going to commit to a decade-long (or more) plan to building factories in the US with this sort of uncertainty; I'm sure a few will pay lip-service to the current POTUS but what CEO is going to commit to the long-term in a country in turmoil?
And even when this is past, those same CEO's - and their successors - will think long and hard about committing to any long-term investment in the US.
In Starcraft, the Terran Factory structure had the ability to Lift Off, fly around, and land somewhere else.
I think the obvious thing to do is for manufacturing companies to start strapping Space-X Starships to their factories. Then when the administration changes, or tariffs or taxes become more favorable in another country, they can just Lift Off and move them to the new location.
Alternatively, we could pursue a Waterworld future where all the factories float around in international waters.
All this churn is just an opportunity to think outside the box!
Semiconductor fabs are actually decently large (>20k employee) cities.
> Semiconductor fabs are actually decently large (>20k employee) cities.
Ok… Then build more pylons…
> So trade deficits are "losing" and he's retaliating with tariffs
He also puts tariffs on countries which have a deficit with the US.
But why single out Russia and North Korea for exemption?
> But why single out Russia and North Korea for exemption?
They’re not, they’ve been sanctioned to such an extent that tariffs would be meaningless…
Manufacturing is not a good argument. Manufacturing output is at all time highs.
> Manufacturing output is at all time highs.
In terms of dollars not in terms of goods.
Country is already bankrupt, he’s throwing a Hail Mary.
If he cared about the debt there wouldn’t be a 4.5T tax cut for the rich.
I think the real reason is more insidious. The purpose is to raise more tax revenue from the middle and lower classes so they can fund a massive tax cut for the billionaire class.
the most likely reason is the simplest one - he is deliberately manipulating market so that his family’s companies can benefit. He did this very transparently with crypto. Now with a larger stakes.
Corruption plain and simple. Now “lobbyists” will rush in offering him favors so that he removes some restrictions
Yes. It's probably a combination between "have to do something about China; this is something" and "now I can move FX markets at will; time for my friends and I to enrich ourselves"
So he shorted … the market?
Long negative beta securites, short positive betas, on margin. Sell calls on ETFs, buy puts on ETFs, etc. There's risk though because his actions are rather unorthodox and the full effects aren't known (and resulting fear can cause betas to shift drastically)
Or if the necessary capital is out of reach for margin trades or options (for his friends it isn't), buy long 3x inverse ETFs as much as you can risk.
If you expect him to play yo-yo some more, rinse and repeat buying either regular or inverse 3x ETFs as needed.
Is this happening at some scale? Surely. Is it the main purpose? Probably not. I'd expect there are easier ways for corrupt politicians and their cronies to profit.
Yes, you can short a total US market ETF. Or just exit the market and be prepared to enter when the floor is hit (impossible, unless you have outsider knowledge).
If Trump is effectively insider-trading, much of the profit would come from the flip-flopping rumors he spreads every week. To keep going, there does need to be the occasional concrete action, otherwise traders start ignoring the rumors.