The reason it is not a real market crash yet is the uncertainties around those tariffs, as they seem too absurd to be kept as announced.
And I believe this is a correct analysis, but I also think that Trump is over playing his hand and miscalculating the reactions of the world at large.
We are going to see a lot more chaos and weird moves during the coming weeks, but I am not optimist about the final outcome.
Which is to say: the market hasn't yet fully priced in the effects of the tariffs. It will continue to fall until people have accepted that the tariffs are here to stay.
After that it could level off. Or continue to fall, if there are knock-on effects that haven't yet been priced in.
(Or, I suppose, a bunch of manufacturing could spring up in the US, superior to the rest of the world, giving us whole new export markets and pushing the Dow into six figures. Let's find out!)
> (Or, I suppose, a bunch of manufacturing could spring up in the US, superior to the rest of the world, giving us whole new export markets and pushing the Dow into six figures. Let's find out!)
Didn't we find out like a century ago with the Smooth-Hawley tariffs? Do we really have to test this again, and now in the sloppiest most haphazard way?
We appear to be intent on repeating a lot of old mistakes. So we're gonna find out.
Vietnam already approached this admin hat in hand. Remember they are all politicians and they will do what it takes to remain in power. Having a global financial meltdown is a bluff. Some countries will play the game (smaller ones) and some will not (China).
So 1 country down, 193 to go? Threatening the entire world with a financial meltdown is not a bluff, or in any way a reasonable thing to do. It's tantamount to a declaration of war, and we'd get what we deserve if the rest of the world treated it that way.
Either way, the stature and role of the US internationally has been forever altered, and not positively.
> So 1 country down, 193 to go
One of America's largest trading partners (6th largest import market) so there's that.
Furthermore, India is also working on announcing a Bilateral Trade Agreement with the US before the QUAD Summit in October (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-03/trump-pil...)
Other large countries also have delegations in the midst of negotiations already - like SK (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-03/south-kor...).
The EU has also started negotiating (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-04/eu-begins...)
And Canada and Mexico remain under NAFTA/USMCA.
Tl;dr - most of America's largest trading partners are in the midst of negotiations or exempt.
Right, so we can get some concessions from Vietnam, but completely get cut off from Europe and China. Great trade.
EU is negotiating an off-ramp (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-04/eu-begins...)
China is not playing ball, but equally large India is working on announcing a Bilateral Trade Agreement (a FTA in all but name) with the US by Aug-Oct.
I'm thinking China not playing the game is a much bigger deal than countries like Vietnam bending the knee.
China is the real target, others tariffs are mostly a smoke screen and considered a potentially beneficial side effect.
>China is the real target,
To put it impolitely, bullshit. Zero rational analysis comes to this conclusion.
Trump began this idiocy by attacking Canada and Mexico, the very countries he triumphantly signed his trade agreement with just five years ago. He lied -- that's what he does -- about a made up Fentanyl emergency, but it's clear the guy loves tariffs (he's been going on about this for years, and still people try to pretend that isn't what this is about...amazingly everyone just assumes that everything out of his mouth is a lie). Outside of oil and gas the US has (or rather had) a massive trade surplus with Canada, but oh well that's a thing of the past now and will never return.
Then he attacked everyone else.
He did the same thing in term one. He could easily have gotten everyone onboard with strategies to contain or slow China, but instead he pushed everyone else away. He had adults in the room containing his profound sabotage of the US the first time, but this time he's going to speedrun the country to dissolution.
I get that the Trump faithful are desperately trying to do the 4D chess thing now. It will never work. The clown has no idea what he is doing, and has build such a cult no one can tell him how profoundly stupid he is. His treasury secretary is likely to quit in days.
I am not a Trump fan (pretty much the opposite) and you are right that this strategy is dumb is very likely to fail spectacularly.
But I maintain that the real core thing behind this chaos is about China.
While I have no doubt that Vietnam went calling, facing devastating tariffs, the "hat in hand" bit is uproarious.
What do you think Vietnam will offer?
It has negligible tariffs on US goods. It exports a lot to the US because it has very cheap labour, because it's a poor country. It is in no position to buy more from the US. There is no universe where it's going to even remotely close that trade deficit.
So what, in your rose-coloured view, do you think they are offering up?
I mean, everyone realizes this is a hilarious cope regardless. Trump declared, with utter absolutism, that the tariffs are not going anywhere and there is no way to negotiate them. That his "ERS" would net trillions and balance the budget. But wait...now it was really a masterful negotiating strategy?
I mean, Trump could have said "here's the tariffs we have estimate based upon a current analysis", and if isn't remediated in a month we'll stagger in "reciprocal" tariffs. That isn't what he did. Instead he did the stupidest thing imaginable, which is what we see today. So yes, when he has to backtrack because it was the most catastrophic self-destruction in history, feel good that a super poor country came "hat in hand".
The deal he is going to offer to countries like Vietnam is to be part of a "club" of countries with special relationship with the US, and that will include accepting to tie up their currencies to the dollar and buying exclusively US weapons for their defense.
They seem absurd to people using their common sense. Trump is not normal, this is his 5th grade understanding of how tariffs work. All these people saying "we should live through the pain". But why? This is inflicted not some outside market crash, it is deliberate destruction of the economy, I can't figure out any other reason that because of Russian kompromat on Trump.
> We are going to see a lot more chaos and weird moves during the coming ~weeks~ YEARS
Fixed that for you. It’s horrifying isn’t it?