That's great context, thank you.

I think my only response is that my bar for "incredibly accurate" has gotten very, very low, given the performance here where I'm living now.

I obviously haven't done any kind of quantitative analysis, but I wouldn't be surprised to find it's genuinely worse than a coin toss.

Oh, I should add that I was living in East Bay closer to Walnut Creek for much of my time there. If I understand your point about the radar coverage correctly, I expect the Oakland hills topology would interact with that limitation somehow?