I used to support UBI but after seeing the US stimulus money get socked away into savings and the stock market, leading to rising prices and inflation, I no longer support it. I think all it will do is raise the cost of nearly everything and those that couldn’t afford the basics still won’t be able to since they’ll be more expensive.
I understand where you're coming from but my perspective is that the two aren't directly comparable. The stimulus money came at a time of fear, and a time when people were primarily stuck inside. It was also known by all to be limited to just one or a couple of payments.
All that combined meant for those that didn't have an immediate need, it was effectively like getting a small bonus from work - putting it in savings or an investment made a lot of sense. I also know several friends that were only able to pay rent or bills because of it.
That is different than if people who need it were given a base source of income that was predictable and long term. I don't think it would just dump into savings then - it would get spent on a new car, or rent, or to pay off debts.
I don't think it matters where it gets put in terms of inflation. What we learned from the stimulus is that taken in aggregate, the population became less price sensitive because they had more money, and sellers felt the increased money supply. This allowed prices to rise. I don't see how UBI doesn't create a similar outcome, but I'm happy to review a paper or something that shows possibly how after an extended period it levels out. I'd imagine in a similar vein if you deleted overnight Social Security prices would fall because the money supply would be impacted so severely.
And then businesses start competition for the customer with pricing pulling that inflation down. No one will start new business or start adjusting existing in context of stimulus money to make prices competitive because they know this spike is just a temporal glitch. Business was rather interested in raising prices to get more in the face of supply shortage. Showed good corporate profit numbers.
Stimulus checks are nowhere close to ubi from person's and business perspective, I would not extrapolate observations from one to another.
I argue against this in that I don't think anyone was acting with such precision. This was an aggregate effect of money supply increasing dramatically. There would no doubt be a spike in prices upon the rollout of UBI, but maybe it would level off over time. My fear is that it would raise the water level permanently and the new price baseline would negate the benefit of UBI.