No shit Sherlock.
Until the end of the year we'll see both NVidia and the hyperscalers that rent their h100s see their revenues already shrinking, there's no way we can have that many companies doing LLMs and being useful.
No shit Sherlock.
Until the end of the year we'll see both NVidia and the hyperscalers that rent their h100s see their revenues already shrinking, there's no way we can have that many companies doing LLMs and being useful.
I have no skin in this game myself, nor do I have any strong opinions one way or the other (though I too have a hard time imagining truly useful LLM-based solutions), but if you're willing to speak with such conviction, I'd like to see your short positions against NVidia et all.
This is kind of a silly argument. Let's say, to take an extreme, you _know_ a stock will fall dramatically at some point in the next five years, but you don't know _when_. You know that, until it falls, it'll be pretty volatile, and sometimes jump up. So, when do you short it? You probably do not short it on day one; that's going to be horrendously expensive.
Really, betting against any tremendously hyped stock is a very dangerous exercise. Just ask those who shorted GameStop (which is _clearly_ dramatically overvalued, but is back to happily jumping up 10% in a day just because).
The other user has commented already, I don't want to bet against this craziness, and in a way, I'm certain that NVidia will continue moving up, until it isn't!
To your last point, I’d like to point out there’s an adage that goes along the lines of “the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent…”
Very true, which is part of why I don't have any positions on anything myself. But OP had a timeframe of 'until the end of the year'. If I felt strongly about something and had a timeframe like that, I'd place some bets.
But why would you expect someone else to behave like you in this tiny betting niche?
Good question. I guess I don't have any expectation that someone would. I was just stuck by the somewhat aggressive tone and strength of their statement. When people talk so aggressively I prefer to see them putting their money where their mouth is.