I agree, but I wonder what will happen to the middle east in the future once the transition is complete. What might they be thinking today about this?
I agree, but I wonder what will happen to the middle east in the future once the transition is complete. What might they be thinking today about this?
I guess it would be possible to see the Saudi-Iran (now dead) reconsiliation, mediated by China; and the Saudi-Israel (now dead) reconsiliation mediated by the US --- as made-possible by these issues.
Though, I suspect, most of that shift comes from the US now being an energy exporter because of shale. If that had been the case earlier, it seems likely the iraq war wouldnt have happened, in that there would be no motivation for the US to 'improve' the region.
It also seems likely that US support for Israel may end with increasing shale and increasing green energy. It's hard to image the severe consequences the US has faced for support will outweigh the value of having a stronghold in the region.
Perhaps Israel might sense this waning US dependence on the ME, and this may be part of its prior attempt to normalise relations with SA, etc. It has always struck me that one of the precipitating issues 'in the air' for Hamas was likely a concern for israeli-arab friendships forming.
If that were to happen, presumably the arab-world sentiment about israel could shift against them, and that would be a catastrophe for Palestinian interests.
It's quite plausible then that much of what we see at the moment is partly a result of US shale plus long term concerns about green transition.
This is a very US-centric view. The things you mention might have an impact but not everything that happens is just due to what the US does. Israel wants to normalize relations with neighbors because that's what any country wants to do in order to keep existing (also, if the US is a factor here, it's mainly in pushing hard diplomatically for normalization of Israeli relations with arab countries).
The Suni (Saudi arabia) vs Shia (Iran) divide currently dominates power politics in the middle east. This is also what motivates Israel's foreign policy (and also Iran's and Hamas' actions). Since the start of the war in Afghanistan, the US has been trying to excert military influence in the region without investing either troops or money. Afghanistan shows how that tends to work out. US influence on the region is at a historic low both economically and politically.
You say this, but then plot a graph of "historic interest of the US in the ME" against, "oil dependency on the middle east" -- you'll find out why US influence is at a historic low.
The widthdrawl from afganistan wouldntve happened without shale, america would be giving up a overwhelming order-imposing capacity in the region to induce chaos; that wouldnt make sense if it needed the ME as it did in the 2000s.
It's not entirely clear how relationships would exist in the ME if it wasnt the site of great power resource competition. The superstructure of the current setup, indeed the borders of the countries we are talking about, are drawn by these issues.
You are indeed agreeing with me when you say that part of what's happening is waning US "influence" (really: interest) -- the US has had, since obama, an explicit ME withdrawl policy that it's never been able to fully execute.
What we are, indeed, seeing are the effects of that withdrawl over time.
> then plot a graph of "historic interest of the US in the ME" against, "oil dependency on the middle east"
I'd love to see such a plot :D One would have to come up with some proxy-metrics to stand in (one shouldn't use explicit axis labels though, that would destroy the nice vibe of having such a plot). There might be dozens of plausible versions of such a plot that might even differ enough to allow any claim one wants.
A bit ignorant to think we don't need oil anymore. Only about 40% of a barrel of oil is used towards gasoline. Many important things in our world, including parts used in electric cars, wind turbines, and solar panels, all have some parts from oil.
https://www.ranken-energy.com/index.php/products-made-from-p...