Google will win AI as far as the most profitable for the same reason that Apple keeps winning the cell phone market - again profits not market share - vertical integration.

Google has the best infrastructure, its own chips TPUs and a huge customer base. Ben Thompson (Stratechery) and Horace Deidi (Asymco) have referenced Clay’s “Innovator’s Dilemma” about the difference between a disruptive technology and a sustaining technology.

AI is going to help BigTech that exists today get bigger.

The cloud providers - AWS, Google and Microsoft - are just exposing models as just another API to their existing customers. Google added AI overviews and an AI tab. Even Apple is going to come out ahead because developers who want local (free) inference can depend on iPhones to have decent hardware and local models.

Facebook is using AI for better ad targeting.

Where does that leave OpenAI? It’s been said plenty of times that no one is going to care about their models that are a commodity and they could put any decent model behind ChatGPT and it would be just as popular.